The gross domestic product of France is likely to have “increased slightly in the first quarter compared to the previous quarter,” says the Banque de France. However, the activity level remains below its level before the first inclusion. Focus on the latest numbers for the French economy.
French gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to have “increased slightly in Q1 compared to the previous quarter”, but activity levels in February and March will remain 5% below pre-crisis levels estimated this Monday by the Banque de France.
“Sectors that are not directly exposed to sanitation are in near-normal activity,” while the others are “showing high levels of losses,” the central bank said in its economic report. The level of activity has therefore been limited to 95% of the pre-crisis level since December; H. That of February 2020. That level was 69% last April before rising to 97% in August, September and October.
The Banque de France states that its “forecast for March continues to be surrounded by a large area of uncertainty” related on the one hand to the progress of the vaccination campaign and on the other hand to variants of the coronavirus. The forecasts are based on the survey of 8,500 companies from February 24th to March 3rd, but also on the expenditure on bank cards, which “remained largely stable in the months of January and February”. In addition, “the traffic, electricity or noise indicators in Ile-de-France seem to show a slight improvement in activity”.
Production capacity utilization in industry rose at least one point in February to 76% from 79% before the crisis. But at 67% it is still “particularly low in the aviation and other transport sectors”, while the chemical industry “operates almost normally” according to the economic report.
The service sector “is showing very slight growth in general, while business leaders have been expecting a decline over the past month,” notes the Banque de France. If it stays at a very low level in the hotel and catering industry, “activity returns or approaches normal” in publishing and “business services such as legal, accounting or consulting. Management”.
In terms of cash flow, the difference is striking between industry, where it is at exceptionally high levels thanks to government guaranteed credit (PGE) and services, where it “remains well below its previous level. Crisis”. Finally, in the construction sector, “activity increased slightly in February and was close to pre-crisis levels”.
For the full year 2021, the Banque de France has been forecasting growth in the French economy of 5% since December.