Regional elections: The balance of power has arrived

Three months before the regional elections, the campaign is taking shape and the French are interested in this election, the last before the 2022 presidential election. According to the latest RégioTrack OpinionWay barometer for Les Echos and Classic Radio released on February 26th the first power struggles arise.

OpinionWay DDM survey

At the national level, the right-hand list is at the top, LREM falling

LREM, with its ally MoDem, is credited with 17% of voting intentions across the country, which equates to one point in a month. The National Rally (RN) fell 2 points to 20% of voting intent. The Republicans precede the two parties. The lists on the right show an advance from one point to 23% when those of the PS and European Ecology – The Greens, who were called to a meeting in the second round, achieve 13% and 12% of the voting intentions, respectively. LREM and RN suffer from a poor local establishment and the bonus for outgoing regional presidents that is compounded by the Covid crisis. LREM also suffers from the unpopularity of the executive branch: less than half of Emmanuel Macron’s voters in the 2017 first round (47%) intend to vote for the presidential party in the regional elections.

Worse for the presidential majority; Every third Frenchman plans to vote to express his “opposition to the action” of the President of the Republic and the government. As for the RN, the performances seem to be lower than the 2015 score: the party, based on well-known headliners (Marine Le Pen, Louis Aliot, Marion Maréchal …) had 28% of the vote in the French Metropolis took the lead. Therefore, in the current state, neither LREM nor RN can win a region …

Many triangular and square

Given the forces at hand, the Opinion Way suggests that the region should offer many triangles or even quadrilaterals like in Occitanie or New Aquitaine, seeing in their two regions the left led by the preferred PS to win the election.
Finally, three months before an election campaign will be dominated by the restrictions imposed by the Covid-19 epidemic, 61% of French say they are interested in voting (62% in Occitania and 63% in New Aquitaine).

On the podium, the issues that will weigh on your voice: safety (45%), living environment and environment (39%) and finally economic development and job creation (39%).