TFC: the scenarios of direct promotion in Ligue 1 (or not)

The essentials On Tuesday evening, May 4th, the Toulouse players won 1-0 in a late game on the 34th day in Le Havre. Consequence: They remain third in the overall standings, but are only four points behind the one on the second place installed Clermontois, who ensures a direct promotion in Ligue 1. Toulouse have three more games to play and Clermont two.

First the schedule of the two teams:

Toulouse

– welcomes Caen on Saturday, May 8th (37th day),

– Pau receives on Wednesday, May 12th (35th matchday, late game),

– leaves for Dunkirk on Saturday 15th May (38th day).

Clermont

– welcomes Sochaux on Saturday, May 8th (37th day),

– leaves for Caen on Saturday 15th May (38th day).

Scenario 1: Clermont wins the last two games

The Toulousains would never overtake the Clermontois. The Auvergnants would have 75 points, the Violets at most 74, with three successes in their last three games.

Scenario 2: 1 draw and 1 win for Clermont in the last two games

The Toulousains can steal second place from them on condition of a clear lap. The Auvergnants had 73 points, the Toulouse 74.

Scenario 3: The Clermontois lose one of their last two games

Again, the Toulouse would need a full box in the last three games. The Clermontois would then have collected 72 points. A nest egg that the Toulousains would also have if they achieved two wins and a draw, for example. The two teams would then be separated due to the specific goal difference, which is initially unfavorable for the Violets: +26 against +35 for the Auvergnats.

Scenario 4: Clermontois scores two draws

You would then count 71 points. To get past them the Toulousains must have at least two wins and one draw (to have 72 points).

Scenario 5: The Clermontois lose their last two meetings

The only scenario in which Toulouse could afford to lose one of the last three meetings. But the other two should definitely win. Clermont would then have 69 points, Toulouse 71.

Conclusion:

– The residents of Toulouse are dependent on the performance of Clermont.

– You can hardly afford to leave the slightest point in the way.

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